{
  "asOf": "2026-10-01",
  "calibration": {
    "drawRho": -0.1785,
    "modelDrawsCorrected": 103,
    "modelDrawsUncorrected": 89,
    "observedDraws": 103,
    "observedGames": 404
  },
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "VAN",
      "date": "2026-10-06",
      "home": "CHI",
      "id": "2026-10-06:CHI:VAN",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "NSH",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "ATX",
      "id": "2026-10-10:ATX:NSH",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "DAL",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "CLT",
      "id": "2026-10-10:CLT:DAL",
      "listedBy": [
        "DAL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SJ",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "COL",
      "id": "2026-10-10:COL:SJ",
      "listedBy": [
        "SJ",
        "COL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "VAN",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "LAFC",
      "id": "2026-10-10:LAFC:VAN",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN",
        "LAFC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "HOU",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "MIN",
      "id": "2026-10-10:MIN:HOU",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "MIN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SEA",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "NE",
      "id": "2026-10-10:NE:SEA",
      "listedBy": [
        "SEA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "RSL",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "PHI",
      "id": "2026-10-10:PHI:RSL",
      "listedBy": [
        "RSL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SD",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "RBNY",
      "id": "2026-10-10:RBNY:SD",
      "listedBy": [
        "SD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "POR",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "home": "SKC",
      "id": "2026-10-10:SKC:POR",
      "listedBy": [
        "POR",
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "LAG",
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "home": "STL",
      "id": "2026-10-11:STL:LAG",
      "listedBy": [
        "STL",
        "LAG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "MIN",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "COL",
      "id": "2026-10-14:COL:MIN",
      "listedBy": [
        "COL",
        "MIN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SEA",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "DAL",
      "id": "2026-10-14:DAL:SEA",
      "listedBy": [
        "DAL",
        "SEA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "ATX",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "LAFC",
      "id": "2026-10-14:LAFC:ATX",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX",
        "LAFC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "POR",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "LAG",
      "id": "2026-10-14:LAG:POR",
      "listedBy": [
        "POR",
        "LAG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SKC",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "NSH",
      "id": "2026-10-14:NSH:SKC",
      "listedBy": [
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SJ",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "RSL",
      "id": "2026-10-14:RSL:SJ",
      "listedBy": [
        "SJ",
        "RSL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "HOU",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "SD",
      "id": "2026-10-14:SD:HOU",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "SD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "VAN",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "home": "STL",
      "id": "2026-10-14:STL:VAN",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN",
        "STL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "VAN",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "ATX",
      "id": "2026-10-17:ATX:VAN",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX",
        "VAN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "DAL",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "HOU",
      "id": "2026-10-17:HOU:DAL",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "DAL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SD",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "LAG",
      "id": "2026-10-17:LAG:SD",
      "listedBy": [
        "SD",
        "LAG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "STL",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "MIN",
      "id": "2026-10-17:MIN:STL",
      "listedBy": [
        "STL",
        "MIN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "COL",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "POR",
      "id": "2026-10-17:POR:COL",
      "listedBy": [
        "COL",
        "POR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "MTL",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "SEA",
      "id": "2026-10-17:SEA:MTL",
      "listedBy": [
        "SEA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "NSH",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "SJ",
      "id": "2026-10-17:SJ:NSH",
      "listedBy": [
        "SJ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "RSL",
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "home": "SKC",
      "id": "2026-10-17:SKC:RSL",
      "listedBy": [
        "RSL",
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "VAN",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "COL",
      "id": "2026-10-24:COL:VAN",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN",
        "COL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SJ",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "DAL",
      "id": "2026-10-24:DAL:SJ",
      "listedBy": [
        "DAL",
        "SJ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "MIN",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "HOU",
      "id": "2026-10-24:HOU:MIN",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "MIN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "CLT",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "POR",
      "id": "2026-10-24:POR:CLT",
      "listedBy": [
        "POR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "STL",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "RSL",
      "id": "2026-10-24:RSL:STL",
      "listedBy": [
        "STL",
        "RSL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SEA",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "SD",
      "id": "2026-10-24:SD:SEA",
      "listedBy": [
        "SD",
        "SEA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "ATX",
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "home": "SKC",
      "id": "2026-10-24:SKC:ATX",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX",
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "LAG",
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "home": "LAFC",
      "id": "2026-10-25:LAFC:LAG",
      "listedBy": [
        "LAFC",
        "LAG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "RSL",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "ATX",
      "id": "2026-10-28:ATX:RSL",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX",
        "RSL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "CLB",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "DAL",
      "id": "2026-10-28:DAL:CLB",
      "listedBy": [
        "DAL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SKC",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "MIN",
      "id": "2026-10-28:MIN:SKC",
      "listedBy": [
        "MIN",
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "HOU",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "SEA",
      "id": "2026-10-28:SEA:HOU",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "SEA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "COL",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "SJ",
      "id": "2026-10-28:SJ:COL",
      "listedBy": [
        "SJ",
        "COL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "POR",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "STL",
      "id": "2026-10-28:STL:POR",
      "listedBy": [
        "STL",
        "POR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SD",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "home": "VAN",
      "id": "2026-10-28:VAN:SD",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN",
        "SD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "CHI",
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "home": "COL",
      "id": "2026-10-31:COL:CHI",
      "listedBy": [
        "COL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "ATX",
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "home": "LAG",
      "id": "2026-10-31:LAG:ATX",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX",
        "LAG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "DAL",
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "home": "SKC",
      "id": "2026-10-31:SKC:DAL",
      "listedBy": [
        "DAL",
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "MIN",
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "home": "LAFC",
      "id": "2026-11-01:LAFC:MIN",
      "listedBy": [
        "LAFC",
        "MIN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "HOU",
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "home": "POR",
      "id": "2026-11-01:POR:HOU",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "POR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "RSL",
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "home": "SJ",
      "id": "2026-11-01:SJ:RSL",
      "listedBy": [
        "SJ",
        "RSL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SD",
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "home": "STL",
      "id": "2026-11-01:STL:SD",
      "listedBy": [
        "STL",
        "SD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SEA",
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "home": "VAN",
      "id": "2026-11-01:VAN:SEA",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN",
        "SEA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "LAFC",
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "home": "NYC",
      "id": "2026-11-04:NYC:LAFC",
      "listedBy": [
        "LAFC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "POR",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "ATX",
      "id": "2026-11-07:ATX:POR",
      "listedBy": [
        "ATX",
        "POR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "COL",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "DAL",
      "id": "2026-11-07:DAL:COL",
      "listedBy": [
        "DAL",
        "COL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "STL",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "HOU",
      "id": "2026-11-07:HOU:STL",
      "listedBy": [
        "HOU",
        "STL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SJ",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "MIN",
      "id": "2026-11-07:MIN:SJ",
      "listedBy": [
        "SJ",
        "MIN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "VAN",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "MTL",
      "id": "2026-11-07:MTL:VAN",
      "listedBy": [
        "VAN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "LAG",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "RSL",
      "id": "2026-11-07:RSL:LAG",
      "listedBy": [
        "LAG",
        "RSL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "SKC",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "SD",
      "id": "2026-11-07:SD:SKC",
      "listedBy": [
        "SD",
        "SKC"
      ]
    },
    {
      "away": "LAFC",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "home": "SEA",
      "id": "2026-11-07:SEA:LAFC",
      "listedBy": [
        "LAFC",
        "SEA"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    "Snapshot as of 2026-10-01, rebuilt automatically from the American Soccer Analysis results feed. Goals for/against and wins/losses reconcile across all 30 clubs.",
    "All remaining MLS fixtures involving a Western club are included. East-vs-East fixtures are not required because team strengths are held fixed throughout each forecast.",
    "Dates are match-local calendar dates, with no kickoff-time assumptions.",
    "All future West-vs-West fixtures are listed by both teams and collapsed to exactly one shared outcome.",
    "Recent form is each club's last 6 completed league matches, computed from the results feed.",
    "Low-score correction rho = -0.1785, fitted so the model reproduces the season's 103 draws in 404 matches (uncorrected Poisson would produce 89)."
  ],
  "recentForm": {
    "ATL": {
      "description": "Charlotte 0–2, Inter Miami 2–2, Orlando 2–3, D.C. United 0–0, Portland 1–0, New York City 2–2",
      "ga": 9,
      "gf": 7,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "ATX": {
      "description": "Portland 2–1, San Jose 1–1, Colorado 1–1, Vancouver 2–1, FC Dallas 0–0, San Diego 3–3",
      "ga": 7,
      "gf": 9,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "CHI": {
      "description": "Seattle 2–2, Toronto 4–4, Inter Miami 1–1, New England 1–2, Nashville 0–3, Charlotte 1–0",
      "ga": 12,
      "gf": 9,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "CIN": {
      "description": "Seattle 1–1, Nashville 0–4, Philadelphia 0–5, Charlotte 3–3, Houston 2–2, Montréal 1–3",
      "ga": 18,
      "gf": 7,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "CLB": {
      "description": "New England 1–3, Colorado 3–0, D.C. United 1–2, Red Bull New York 0–1, Montréal 2–0, Inter Miami 2–1",
      "ga": 7,
      "gf": 9,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "CLT": {
      "description": "Atlanta 2–0, Houston 0–0, Montréal 2–1, Cincinnati 3–3, D.C. United 2–1, Chicago 0–1",
      "ga": 6,
      "gf": 9,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "COL": {
      "description": "Real Salt Lake 1–0, Columbus 0–3, Austin FC 1–1, Montréal 1–0, Seattle 3–3, LA Galaxy 2–3",
      "ga": 10,
      "gf": 8,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "DAL": {
      "description": "St. Louis 3–3, Sporting KC 4–3, Minnesota 2–1, Portland 2–1, Austin FC 0–0, LAFC 1–0",
      "ga": 8,
      "gf": 12,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "DC": {
      "description": "Charlotte 1–3, LAFC 0–0, Columbus 2–1, Atlanta 0–0, Charlotte 1–2, Vancouver 3–3",
      "ga": 9,
      "gf": 7,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "HOU": {
      "description": "San Jose 0–0, Charlotte 0–0, Real Salt Lake 2–1, San Jose 0–1, Cincinnati 2–2, Sporting KC 0–2",
      "ga": 6,
      "gf": 4,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "LAFC": {
      "description": "D.C. United 0–0, Real Salt Lake 2–2, Red Bull New York 2–0, Sporting KC 1–3, San Jose 2–2, FC Dallas 0–1",
      "ga": 8,
      "gf": 7,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "LAG": {
      "description": "San Diego 1–3, New England 2–1, Vancouver 0–3, Seattle 1–1, Minnesota 3–2, Colorado 3–2",
      "ga": 12,
      "gf": 10,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "MIA": {
      "description": "Montréal 7–1, Atlanta 2–2, Chicago 1–1, Nashville 2–2, San Diego 2–2, Columbus 1–2",
      "ga": 10,
      "gf": 15,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "MIN": {
      "description": "Orlando 3–3, Portland 4–5, FC Dallas 1–2, St. Louis 2–4, LA Galaxy 2–3, Seattle 1–3",
      "ga": 20,
      "gf": 13,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "MTL": {
      "description": "Inter Miami 1–7, Philadelphia 0–2, Charlotte 1–2, Colorado 0–1, Columbus 0–2, Cincinnati 3–1",
      "ga": 15,
      "gf": 5,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "NE": {
      "description": "Columbus 3–1, LA Galaxy 1–2, New York City 2–1, Chicago 2–1, Orlando 4–2, Real Salt Lake 0–3",
      "ga": 10,
      "gf": 12,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "NSH": {
      "description": "Cincinnati 4–0, New York City 0–0, Toronto 1–2, Inter Miami 2–2, Chicago 3–0, Toronto 2–0",
      "ga": 4,
      "gf": 12,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "NYC": {
      "description": "Toronto 1–1, Nashville 0–0, New England 1–2, Real Salt Lake 2–0, Red Bull New York 0–1, Atlanta 2–2",
      "ga": 6,
      "gf": 6,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "ORL": {
      "description": "Minnesota 3–3, San Diego 1–0, Atlanta 3–2, Toronto 3–0, New England 2–4, Philadelphia 2–4",
      "ga": 13,
      "gf": 14,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "PHI": {
      "description": "Red Bull New York 3–1, Montréal 2–0, Cincinnati 5–0, San Diego 5–0, Sporting KC 4–3, Orlando 4–2",
      "ga": 6,
      "gf": 23,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "POR": {
      "description": "Austin FC 1–2, Minnesota 5–4, St. Louis 2–2, FC Dallas 1–2, Atlanta 0–1, San Jose 1–3",
      "ga": 14,
      "gf": 10,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "RBNY": {
      "description": "Philadelphia 1–3, Seattle 0–0, LAFC 0–2, Columbus 1–0, New York City 1–0, St. Louis 0–3",
      "ga": 8,
      "gf": 3,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "RSL": {
      "description": "LAFC 2–2, Houston 1–2, New York City 0–2, Vancouver 0–3, Seattle 0–2, New England 3–0",
      "ga": 11,
      "gf": 6,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "SD": {
      "description": "LA Galaxy 3–1, Orlando 0–1, San Jose 2–3, Philadelphia 0–5, Inter Miami 2–2, Austin FC 3–3",
      "ga": 15,
      "gf": 10,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "SEA": {
      "description": "Red Bull New York 0–0, LA Galaxy 1–1, Colorado 3–3, Real Salt Lake 2–0, Minnesota 3–1, Sporting KC 2–1",
      "ga": 6,
      "gf": 11,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "SJ": {
      "description": "Houston 0–0, Austin FC 1–1, San Diego 3–2, Houston 1–0, LAFC 2–2, Portland 3–1",
      "ga": 6,
      "gf": 10,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "SKC": {
      "description": "Vancouver 0–3, FC Dallas 3–4, LAFC 3–1, Philadelphia 3–4, Houston 2–0, Seattle 1–2",
      "ga": 14,
      "gf": 12,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "STL": {
      "description": "FC Dallas 3–3, Vancouver 3–1, Portland 2–2, Minnesota 4–2, Toronto 3–1, Red Bull New York 3–0",
      "ga": 9,
      "gf": 18,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "TOR": {
      "description": "New York City 1–1, Chicago 4–4, Nashville 2–1, Orlando 0–3, St. Louis 1–3, Nashville 0–2",
      "ga": 14,
      "gf": 8,
      "gp": 6
    },
    "VAN": {
      "description": "Sporting KC 3–0, St. Louis 1–3, LA Galaxy 3–0, Austin FC 1–2, Real Salt Lake 3–0, D.C. United 3–3",
      "ga": 8,
      "gf": 14,
      "gp": 6
    }
  },
  "sources": {
    "austinResult": {
      "label": "Austin FC Vancouver match report",
      "url": "https://www.austinfc.com/news/austin-fc-moves-within-one-game-of-playoff-line-with-win-at-vancouver"
    },
    "results": {
      "label": "American Soccer Analysis — MLS games API",
      "url": "https://app.americansocceranalysis.com/api/v1/mls/games?season_name=2026"
    },
    "rules": {
      "label": "MLS 2026 competition guidelines",
      "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/about/competition-guidelines"
    },
    "schedules": [
      {
        "espnId": 20906,
        "id": "ATX",
        "url": "https://www.espn.com.mx/futbol/equipo/calendario/_/id/20906/austin_fc"
      },
      {
        "espnId": 9727,
        "id": "VAN",
        "url": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/fixtures/_/id/9727/vancouver-whitecaps"
      },
      {
        "espnId": 6077,
        "id": "HOU",
        "url": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/fixtures/_/id/6077/houston-dynamo-fc"
      },
      {
        "espnId": 185,
        "id": "DAL",
        "url": "https://www.espn.com/football/team/fixtures/_/id/185/fc-dallas"
      },
      {
        "espnId": 191,
        "id": "SJ",
        "url": "https://www.espn.com/football/team/fixtures/_/id/191/san-jose-earthquakes"
      },
      {
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