Austin FC · 2026 run-in

The Verde playoff chase.

5 points below the current ninth-place total. 7 matches remain. Explore Austin’s paths and every Western rival’s schedule.

Standings snapshot: 2026-10-01 · model v2.3 · top nine qualify

Austin now

31 pts

13th in the West · 27 matches played

Gap to 9th

5 pts

LA Galaxy: 36 pts · 28 played

Playoff chance · top 9

Top 7: 0.9% · 8th/9th: 6.5%

Projected finish · medians

39 pts · 13th

Western Conference · points range 35–43 (middle 80% of simulations)

The Western race

Current standings with the first tiebreakers (goal difference, goals for), each club’s matches left and the points the model expects from them, projected final points, and top-nine odds. Tap a club for its last six results and next fixtures.

Place	Club	GP	Pts	GD	GF	Left · xPts	Proj. pts	Top 9
1	Vancouver Last six: Sporting KC 3–0, St. Louis 1–3, LA Galaxy 3–0, Austin FC 1–2, Real Salt Lake 3–0, D.C. United 3–3Next: Oct 6 @ Chicago, Oct 10 @ LAFC, Oct 14 @ St. Louis	26	50	+33	59	8 · 14.6	64.6	100.0%
2	St. Louis Last six: FC Dallas 3–3, Vancouver 3–1, Portland 2–2, Minnesota 4–2, Toronto 3–1, Red Bull New York 3–0Next: Oct 11 vs LA Galaxy, Oct 14 vs Vancouver, Oct 17 @ Minnesota	27	47	+12	48	7 · 11.1	58.1	100.0%
3	FC Dallas Last six: St. Louis 3–3, Sporting KC 4–3, Minnesota 2–1, Portland 2–1, Austin FC 0–0, LAFC 1–0Next: Oct 10 @ Charlotte, Oct 14 vs Seattle, Oct 17 @ Houston	27	47	+8	50	7 · 11.0	58.0	100.0%
4	San Jose Last six: Houston 0–0, Austin FC 1–1, San Diego 3–2, Houston 1–0, LAFC 2–2, Portland 3–1Next: Oct 10 @ Colorado, Oct 14 @ Real Salt Lake, Oct 17 vs Nashville	27	45	+10	49	7 · 10.0	55.0	100.0%
5	Houston Last six: San Jose 0–0, Charlotte 0–0, Real Salt Lake 2–1, San Jose 0–1, Cincinnati 2–2, Sporting KC 0–2Next: Oct 10 @ Minnesota, Oct 14 @ San Diego, Oct 17 vs FC Dallas	27	44	+2	34	7 · 9.5	53.5	99.9%
6	LAFC Last six: D.C. United 0–0, Real Salt Lake 2–2, Red Bull New York 2–0, Sporting KC 1–3, San Jose 2–2, FC Dallas 0–1Next: Oct 10 vs Vancouver, Oct 14 vs Austin FC, Oct 25 vs LA Galaxy	28	41	+13	43	6 · 9.8	50.8	99.1%
7	Seattle Last six: Red Bull New York 0–0, LA Galaxy 1–1, Colorado 3–3, Real Salt Lake 2–0, Minnesota 3–1, Sporting KC 2–1Next: Oct 10 @ New England, Oct 14 @ FC Dallas, Oct 17 vs Montréal	27	38	0	35	7 · 8.5	46.5	83.7%
8	Colorado Last six: Real Salt Lake 1–0, Columbus 0–3, Austin FC 1–1, Montréal 1–0, Seattle 3–3, LA Galaxy 2–3Next: Oct 10 vs San Jose, Oct 14 vs Minnesota, Oct 17 @ Portland	27	36	0	38	7 · 8.8	44.8	71.8%
9	LA Galaxy Last berth Last six: San Diego 1–3, New England 2–1, Vancouver 0–3, Seattle 1–1, Minnesota 3–2, Colorado 3–2Next: Oct 11 @ St. Louis, Oct 14 vs Portland, Oct 17 vs San Diego	28	36	-7	37	6 · 7.4	43.4	47.0%
10	Portland Last six: Austin FC 1–2, Minnesota 5–4, St. Louis 2–2, FC Dallas 1–2, Atlanta 0–1, San Jose 1–3Next: Oct 10 @ Sporting KC, Oct 14 @ LA Galaxy, Oct 17 vs Colorado	27	32	-3	48	7 · 9.5	41.5	32.7%
11	Real Salt Lake Last six: LAFC 2–2, Houston 1–2, New York City 0–2, Vancouver 0–3, Seattle 0–2, New England 3–0Next: Oct 10 @ Philadelphia, Oct 14 vs San Jose, Oct 17 @ Sporting KC	27	32	-4	40	7 · 9.0	41.0	25.9%
12	San Diego Last six: LA Galaxy 3–1, Orlando 0–1, San Jose 2–3, Philadelphia 0–5, Inter Miami 2–2, Austin FC 3–3Next: Oct 10 @ Red Bull New York, Oct 14 vs Houston, Oct 17 @ LA Galaxy	27	32	0	47	7 · 9.5	41.5	28.3%
13	Austin FC Last six: Portland 2–1, San Jose 1–1, Colorado 1–1, Vancouver 2–1, FC Dallas 0–0, San Diego 3–3Next: Oct 10 vs Nashville, Oct 14 @ LAFC, Oct 17 vs Vancouver	27	31	-12	35	7 · 7.7	38.7	7.4%
14	Minnesota Last six: Orlando 3–3, Portland 4–5, FC Dallas 1–2, St. Louis 2–4, LA Galaxy 2–3, Seattle 1–3Next: Oct 10 vs Houston, Oct 14 @ Colorado, Oct 17 vs St. Louis	27	29	-9	40	7 · 8.7	37.7	4.4%
15	Sporting KC Last six: Vancouver 0–3, FC Dallas 3–4, LAFC 3–1, Philadelphia 3–4, Houston 2–0, Seattle 1–2Next: Oct 10 vs Portland, Oct 14 @ Nashville, Oct 17 vs Real Salt Lake	27	21	-33	32	7 · 6.1	27.1	<0.1%

Gold line below ninth = playoff cutoff. First–seventh qualify directly; eighth–ninth enter the wild card.

Where could Austin finish?

50,000 simulations. Bars use a shared 0–100% scale. A value below 0.1% does not mean mathematically impossible.

1st

<0.1%

2nd

<0.1%

3rd

<0.1%

4th

<0.1%

5th

<0.1%

6th

0.1%

7th

0.8%

8th

2.1%

9th

4.4%

10th

7.1%

11th

11.3%

12th

16.4%

13th

24.8%

14th

32.4%

15th

0.7%

The median is 13th; the mean is 12.4. These summarize the distribution in different ways.

This week’s rooting guide

Next up: vs Nashville, Oct 10. Austin’s top-nine chance is 7.4% today. If Austin wins it becomes 17.7%; if it draws, 7.1%; if it loses, 4.2%. The model thinks a win is 17% likely, a draw 27%, a loss 56%.

Every fixture from Oct 6–Oct 12 involving a Western club. Each big number is Austin’s chance of finishing top nine if that result happens — three alternative futures, so they do not add up. The small number underneath is how likely the model thinks that result is; those three do add up to 100%. Swing is the gap between the best and worst future for Austin, in playoff-odds percentage. 20,000 simulations per cell from one seed, so cells are comparable with each other; the baseline at that size is 7.3%.

Date	Match	Austin’s top-nine chance if…			Swing	Root for
Date	Match	home side wins	it’s a draw	away side wins	Swing	Root for
Oct 10	Austin FC v Nashville	17.8%17% likely	7.1%27% likely	4.2%56% likely	13.6%	Austin FC
Oct 11	St. Louis v LA Galaxy	7.8%56% likely	7.2%25% likely	5.7%18% likely	2.1%	St. Louis
Oct 10	Colorado v San Jose	6.3%38% likely	7.5%29% likely	8.2%33% likely	1.9%	San Jose
Oct 10	Red Bull New York v San Diego	8.1%35% likely	7.6%26% likely	6.3%38% likely	1.8%	Red Bull New York
Oct 10	Sporting KC v Portland	8.2%29% likely	7.7%24% likely	6.7%47% likely	1.5%	Sporting KC
Oct 10	Philadelphia v Real Salt Lake	7.6%55% likely	7.2%23% likely	6.2%21% likely	1.4%	Philadelphia
Oct 10	New England v Seattle	7.6%48% likely	7.2%29% likely	6.8%23% likely	0.8%	New England
Oct 10	Minnesota v Houston	7.0%37% likely	7.4%30% likely	7.5%33% likely	–	No effect
Oct 10	LAFC v Vancouver	7.3%32% likely	7.3%31% likely	7.3%37% likely	–	No effect
Oct 6	Chicago v Vancouver	7.3%29% likely	7.3%27% likely	7.3%43% likely	–	No effect
Oct 10	Charlotte v FC Dallas	7.3%47% likely	7.3%26% likely	7.3%27% likely	–	No effect

What each points total buys

Of the simulated seasons in which Austin finished on exactly this many points, how often was it enough? Totals reached in fewer than 0.1% of seasons are omitted.

Austin’s first total with better-than-even playoff odds is 44 points (54.2%); the first that gets in nine times out of ten is 46. Gold line: the median ninth-place total, 44.

Final points	Share of seasons	Top 9	Top 7
31	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
32	1.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%
33	2.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%
34	4.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
35	7.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%
36	9.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%
37	10.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
38	12.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%
39	12.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
40	10.2%	0.2%	<0.1%
41	9.8%	2.0%	<0.1%
42	6.8%	8.2%	<0.1%
43	4.6%	25.4%	<0.1%
44	3.7%	54.2%	1.5%
45	1.9%	76.7%	6.9%
46	1.0%	92.4%	18.9%
47	0.8%	97.9%	38.2%
48	0.2%	100.0%	56.6%
49	0.1%	100.0%	85.0%

Magic and tragic numbers

Arithmetic, not simulation. These are the hard bounds the odds above live inside.

Maximum: 52 points — 31 banked plus 7 matches to play.

Tragic number: 17
Austin is out once the ninth-best rival total passes 52. That total is 36 (LA Galaxy) today. Every point that club gains, and every point Austin fails to take from its remaining 21, brings the number down by one.

Magic number: 24
Austin is in once its total passes the ninth-highest rival ceiling, currently 54 (LA Galaxy). Every point Austin gains, and every point that club drops from its ceiling, brings the number down by one. Austin can supply at most 21 of them itself.

Points ties go to wins, then goal difference, and are not counted here.

Where could every club finish?

Each row is one club’s finishing-position distribution across the same 50,000 seasons; cells show whole percentages, a dot means under 1%. Gold line after ninth = last playoff place. Sorted by top-nine chance.

Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Top 9
Vancouver	85	11	3	·	·											100.0%
St. Louis	7	34	30	17	9	3	·									100.0%
FC Dallas	6	33	29	18	10	4	·									100.0%
San Jose	1	14	21	29	22	10	2	·								100.0%
Houston	·	7	13	23	31	18	5	1	·							99.9%
LAFC		·	3	10	22	40	15	5	2	·	·					99.1%
Seattle			·	1	4	12	29	23	15	9	5	2	·			83.7%
Colorado			·	·	2	7	21	23	18	13	8	5	2	·		71.8%
LA Galaxy					·	2	10	15	19	17	15	12	7	2		47.0%
Portland					·	1	6	11	14	16	17	15	12	7		32.7%
San Diego					·	·	5	9	13	16	18	18	12	6	·	28.3%
Real Salt Lake					·	·	5	8	12	15	18	18	15	9	·	25.9%
Austin FC						·	·	2	4	7	11	16	25	32	·	7.4%
Minnesota							·	1	3	5	8	14	26	40	2	4.4%
Sporting KC												·	·	2	97	<0.1%

Build your own finish

Start with a 42-point path, or choose your results. “?” leaves a match open. Run your scenario to simulate rivals and see the resulting place and playoff chance.

Oct 10

vs Nashville

Oct 14

@ LAFC

Oct 17

vs Vancouver

Oct 24

@ Sporting KC

Oct 28

vs Real Salt Lake

Oct 31

@ LA Galaxy

Nov 7

vs Portland

Your scenario · not the baseline forecast

42 points

3–2–2 (W–D–L)

Scenario odds have not been calculated yet.

The targets

Finish	Needed	PPG	Example W–D–L
42 pts	11 from 7	1.57	3–2–2
45 pts	14 from 7	2.00	4–2–1

Neither target guarantees qualification. Ninth finishes on a median of 44 points, with a middle-80% range of 42–46.

Austin reaches at least 42 in 19.1% of simulations. Among those simulations, it makes the top nine 37.5% of the time. This includes higher point totals, not just exactly 42.

Austin reaches at least 45 in 4.0% of simulations. Among those simulations, it makes the top nine 86.7% of the time. This includes higher point totals, not just exactly 45.

Every rival’s remaining schedule

Select any Western club. Probabilities and expected points are generated from the same baseline model; each shared fixture is simulated once.

Club

Date	Match	Win	Draw	Loss	Expected points

How sensitive are the odds?

These are separate assumptions, not a confidence interval. The baseline uses the same season-based formula for every club.

Assumption	Austin top 9	Average points
Baseline · season goals, eight-game regression, assumed home advantage, calibrated draw correction	7.4%	38.7
No low-score correction (plain independent Poisson)	7.8%	38.9
20% weight on every club’s last six	10.8%	39.3
Less regression to league average	6.6%	38.5
More regression to league average	8.8%	39.1
Smaller home advantage	7.0%	38.6
Larger home advantage	7.8%	38.8

Review findings and model limitations

Version 2 replaces the previous 34% estimate. The old code used subjective team ratings, incomplete opponent schedules, a fixed draw rate and strength-based tiebreakers. This version includes all 59 remaining MLS matches involving Western clubs, restores Vancouver’s missing game, generates scorelines, and uses a fixed random seed. Validation checks every Western club finishes with 34 matches and every shared fixture has reciprocal listings.

Teams are ranked by points, wins, goal difference, then goals scored. If still tied, this model uses a seeded random order rather than historical head-to-head, disciplinary and venue tiebreakers. Austin was involved in such a tie in 0.042% of simulations. Giving Austin the best or worst place within every such tie produced a top-nine range of 7.36–7.36% in this run.

The model is not backtested. It does not use expected goals, lineups, injuries, roster changes, or opponent-adjusted historical records. Match scores use two Poisson distributions with a low-score draw correction fitted to this season. Attack and defense rates are pulled toward the league mean with eight pseudo-matches; a home multiplier of exp(0.13) and away multiplier of exp(−0.13) are assumptions, not fitted coefficients. Rates stay fixed during the forecast. Eastern-only fixtures are omitted because they cannot affect Western standings or these fixed rates.

The recent-form scenario reweights every club, not just Austin: 80% full-season and 20% its last six matches, before regression. Austin’s own last six are 9 goals scored and 7 conceded; form is computed for all 30 clubs from the results feed. Points and place medians are separate summaries, not a promise that exactly 39 points finishes 13th.

Sources and reproducibility

Results are pulled hourly from the American Soccer Analysis MLS feed; every club’s record is rebuilt from the full season game log each run and checked for league-wide balance before anything is published. The page shows its data date — the latest completed match — rather than claiming to be live.

Results feed (ASA)Official standings MLS rules Input data and schedule sources Simulation code Full model results Review and checks Reproduce this forecast Source on GitHub

How this forecast works

Three models stack up to produce the numbers above. Team strength is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage estimate: each club’s goals scored and conceded per match are pulled toward the league average with eight pseudo-matches of weight, so a club that has looked brilliant across a handful of games is not trusted as much as one that has done it for twenty-five. Match scores come from two Poisson distributions, one per side, whose means are that club’s attack times its opponent’s leakiness, normalised by the league average and tilted by a fixed home advantage of exp(0.13). Treated as fully independent, those two draws under-produce 0–0 and 1–1, so a Dixon–Coles low-score correction (ρ = -0.178) shifts probability from the narrow wins into the low draws; ρ is refitted every refresh so the model reproduces this season’s actual draw rate (103 draws in 404 matches, 25.5%, where the uncorrected model would have produced about 89). Season outcomes come from Monte Carlo: all 59 remaining fixtures involving a Western club are drawn once per simulated season, 50,000 seasons deep, and each season’s final table is sorted by points, then wins, then goal difference, then goals scored.

What that choice of models buys and costs: Poisson scoring is the standard first model for football and it handles the long tail of blowouts honestly, but it ignores game state, so it cannot know that a team protecting a lead stops attacking; the low-score correction patches the one corner of the score table where that matters most for the standings (draws), and nothing else. Shrinkage guards against small-sample noise at the cost of muting genuine form, which is why the recent-form scenario exists as a counterweight. Monte Carlo is what makes correlated outcomes tractable — when Austin and a rival share a fixture, both teams get the same scoreline in that season, which a closed-form calculation could not express.

Projected points and place are medians from the simulations. The main tiebreakers are modeled; rare deeper ties are approximated and their impact is disclosed above.